New Poll Spells Trouble For Democrats In 2018 Mid-Terms

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Republicans may be on track to avoid double digit losses in the House of Representatives and maintain their control of the both chambers of Congress in the mid-term elections.

A new POLITICO/Morning Consult survey finds that voters are increasingly more willing to support Republican control of Congress with 39% of respondents saying they would vote for Republican candidates and 38% of voters saying they would vote for Democratic candidates. Marking the first time since April of last year that this poll found Republicans leading Democrats on the generic Congressional ballot question.

Voters trust Republicans to handle the issue they found most important, the economy, 43% to 32% according to the new poll.

Voters also said they trust Republicans to handle immigration issues 42% to 36%, and national security 47% to 28%. But voters say they trust Democrats to handle healthcare, education, and the environment more than Republicans.

While history tends to favor the minority party’s candidates in mid-term elections, Republicans have become optimistic about their chances of retaining control of Congress.

For the majority of 2017, generic Congressional ballot polls found that voters said they would favor Democratic control of Congress by high single digit or even double digit margins, leading some analysts to predict that Republicans will lose control of the House and Senate.

However, Republicans’ standing has improved following the passage of the tax reform bill in late December of last year and new polls have found Democrats with diminished single point leads.

Some election analysts say Democrats would need a double-digit lead to win control of the House in 2018.

The POLITICO/Morning Consult poll found that more voters approve of the job Donald Trump with doing as President with 47% saying they approve and 47% saying they do not approve. Over the past few weeks, Trump’s approval numbers have risen out of the mid to high 30’s and the RealClearPolitics average of his approval rating sits at 41.4%.

Respondents were asked about the White House’s handling of the resignation of former staff secretary Rob Porter, and whether they would support a military parade in Washington, D.C.

The POLITICO/Morning Consult poll was conducted February 8-12 and surveyed 1,985 registered voters, and has a margin of error of 2%.